Douglas LaxtonDirector of Saddle Point Research and The
Better Policy Project Macroeconomics,
Monetary Policy, Inflation Targeting, Fiscal Policy, Macroprudential Policy
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Books
Publications and Working Papers
Papers in 2020
Laxton D., A. Kostanyan, A. Liqokeli, G. Minasyan, A. Nurbekyan and T. Sopromadze, 2019, "Mind the Gaps! Financial-Cycle
Output Gaps and Monetary-Policy-Relevant Output Gaps." London School of Economics and Political Science. Laxton D., 2019, "Mind the Gaps! Output Gaps for Monetary Policy and Financial Stability Assessments,"
Special Feature B in the October 2019 Macroeconomic Review, Monetary Authority of Singapore. Alichi, A., H. Avetisyan, D. Laxton, S. Mkhatrishvili, A. Nurbekyan, L. Torosyan, H. Wang, and J. Yao,
2019, “Multivariate Filter Estimation of Potential Output for the United States:Extension with Labor Market Hysteresis,” IMF Working Paper 19/35. Laxton D., K. Clinton, L. Pio Perez, A. Nurbekyan, T. Holub, and J. Beneš, 2019, “Evaluation
of The Central Bank of Chile Forecasting and Policy Analysis System for Inflation-Forecast Targeting," IMF (For Official
Use Only) Mkhatrishvili Sh., D. Laxton, D. Tutberidze, T. Sopromadze, S. Metreveli, L. Arevadze, T. Mdivnishvili
and G. Tsutskiridze, “Solving non-linear dynamic models (more) efficiently: application to a simple monetary policy
model,” NBG Working Papers, WP 01/2019 Clinton K., R. S. Craig, D. Laxton, and H. Wang, 2019, “Strengthening the Monetary Policy Framework
in Korea,” IMF Working Paper 19/103, International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC.
Papers in 2018
Alichi, A., R. Al-Mashat, H. Avetisyan, J. Benes, O. Bizimana, A. Butavyan, R. Ford, N. Ghazaryan,
V. Grigoryan, M. Harutyunyan, A. Hovhannisyan, E. Hovhannisyan, H. Karapetyan, M. Kharaishvili, D. Laxton, A. Liqokeli, K.
Matikyan, G. Minasyan, S. Mkhatrishvili, A. Nurbekyan, A. Orlov, B. Pashinyan, G. Petrosyan, Y. Rezepina, A. Shirkhanyan,
T. Sopromadze, L. Torosyan, E. Vardanyan, H. Wang, and J. Yao, 2018, “Estimates of Potential Output and the Neutral
Rate for the U.S. Economy,” IMF Working Paper No 18/152.
Zoli, E., D. Laxton, S. Mursula, H. Wang, and J. Yao, 2018, “A New Strategy for Korea’s
Fiscal Policy in a Low-Growth Environment,” Republic of Korea: Selected Issues, IMF Country Report, No. 18/41.
Zoli, E., D. Laxton, S. Mursula, H. Wang, and J. Yao, 2018, “A New Strategy for Korea’s
Fiscal Policy in a Low-Growth Environment,” IMF Working Paper 18/91
Adrian, T., D. Laxton, and M. Obstfeld, 2018, “An Overview of Inflation-Forecast
Targeting,” in Advancing the Frontiers of Monetary Policy, ed. by T. Adrian, D. Laxton, and M. Obstfeld (Washington:
International Monetary Fund).
Adrian, T., D. Laxton, and M. Obstfeld, 2018, “A Robust and Adaptable Nominal
Anchor,” in Advancing the Frontiers of Monetary Policy, ed. by T. Adrian, D. Laxton, and M. Obstfeld (Washington:
International Monetary Fund).
Al-Mashat, R., K. Clinton, D. Laxton, and H. Wang, 2018, “First Principles,”
in Advancing the Frontiers of Monetary Policy, ed. by T. Adrian, D. Laxton, and M. Obstfeld (Washington: International
Monetary Fund).
Al-Mashat, R., K. Clinton, D. Laxton, and H. Wang, 2018, “Managing Expectations,”
in Advancing the Frontiers of Monetary Policy, ed. by T. Adrian, D. Laxton, and M. Obstfeld (Washington: International
Monetary Fund).
Al-Mashat, R., K. Clinton, D. Laxton, and H. Wang, 2018, “Nuts and Bolts
of a Forecasting and Policy Analysis System,” in Advancing the Frontiers of Monetary Policy, ed. by T. Adrian,
D. Laxton, and M. Obstfeld (Washington: International Monetary Fund).
Al-Mashat, R., K. Clinton, D. Laxton, and H. Wang, 2018, “Transparency and
Communications,” in Advancing the Frontiers of Monetary Policy, ed. by T. Adrian, D. Laxton, and M. Obstfeld
(Washington: International Monetary Fund).
Al-Mashat, R., K. Clinton, D. Laxton, and H. Wang, 2018, “Canada: A Well-Established
System,” in Advancing the Frontiers of Monetary Policy, ed. by T. Adrian, D. Laxton, and M. Obstfeld (Washington:
International Monetary Fund).
Al-Mashat, R., K. Clinton, D. Laxton, and H. Wang, 2018, “Czech Republic:
Transition to the Frontier,” in Advancing the Frontiers of Monetary Policy, ed. by T. Adrian, D. Laxton, and
M. Obstfeld (Washington: International Monetary Fund).
Al-Mashat, R., K. Clinton, D. Laxton, and H. Wang, 2018, “India: Stabilizing
Inflation,” in Advancing the Frontiers of Monetary Policy, ed. by T. Adrian, D. Laxton, and M. Obstfeld (Washington:
International Monetary Fund).
Al-Mashat, R., K. Clinton, D. Laxton, and H. Wang, 2018, “United States:
Federal Reserve’s Dual Mandate,” in Advancing the Frontiers of Monetary Policy, ed. by T. Adrian, D.
Laxton, and M. Obstfeld (Washington: International Monetary Fund).
Al-Mashat, R., A. Bulíř, N.N. Dinçer, T. Hlédik, T. Holub, A. Kostanyan,
D. Laxton, A. Nurbekyan, and H. Wang, 2018, “An Index for Transparency for Inflation-Targeting Central Banks: Application
to the Czech National Bank,” IMF Working Paper No 18/210.
Papers in 2017
Alichi, A., O. Bizimana, D. Laxton, K. Tanyeri, H. Wang, J. Yao,
and F. Zhang, 2017, “Multivariate Filter Estimation of Potential Output for the United States,” IMF Working Paper
No. 17/106.
Benes, J., K. Clinton, A. George, J. John, O. Kamenik, D. Laxton, P. Mitra, G.V. Nadhanael, H. Wang,
and F. Zhang, 2017, “Inflation-Forecast Targeting for India: An Outline of the Analytical Framework,” IMF Working
Paper No. 17/32.
Benes, J., K. Clinton, A. George, P. Gupta, J. John, O. Kamenik, D. Laxton, P. Mitra, G.V. Nadhanael,
R. Portillo, H. Wang, and F. Zhang, 2017, “Quarterly Projection Model for India: Key Elements and Properties,”
IMF Working Paper No. 17/33.
Matsumoto, A., A. Nurbekyan, D. Laxton, H. Wang, J. Yao, R. Arezki, Z. Jakab, 2017, "Oil Prices and the Global
Economy," January, IMF Working Paper 17/15.
Benes, J., K. Clinton, A.T. George, J. John, O. Kamenik, D. Laxton, P. Mitra, G.V. Nadhanael, H.
Wang, F. Zhang, 2016, "Inflation-Forecast Targeting for India: An Outline of the Analytical Framework," The
Reserve Bank of India Working Paper 07/2016. Benes, J., K. Clinton, A.T. George, P. Gupta, J. John, O. Kamenik, D. Laxton, P. Mitra, G.V. Nadhanael,
R. Portillo, H. Wang, F. Zhang, 2016, "Quarterly Projection Model for India: Key Elements and Properties,"
The Reserve Bank of India Working Paper 08/2016. Gaspar, V., M. Obstfeld, R. Sahay, D. Laxton, D. Botman, K. Clinton, R. Duval, K. Ishi, Z. Jakab, L.J. Mayor, C.L.
Ngouana, T.M. Griffoli, J. Mongardini, S. Mursula, E. Nier, Y. Ustyugova, H. Wang, O. Wuensch, 2016, "Macroeconomic
Management When Policy Space Is Constrained: A Comprehensive, Consistent and Coordinated Approach to Economic Policy,"
IMF Staff Discussion Note No 16/09. Arbatli, E., D. Botman, K. Clinton, P. Cova, V. Gaspar, Z. Jakab, D. Laxton, C. Ngouana, J. Mongardini,
H. Wang 2016, "Reflating Japan: Time to Get Unconventional?" IMF Working Paper No 16/157. Benes, J., C. Freedman, M. Kumhof, D. Laxton, D. Muir, S. Mursula, H. Wang, 2016, "The Benefits of International
Policy Coordination Reconsidered: Some Important Lessons from the Global Financial Crisis," pp. 77-110, in Managing
Complexity: Economic Policy Cooperation after the Crisis, edited by Tamim Bayoumi, Stephen Pickford and Paola Subacchi,
Brookings Institution Press. Benes, J., D. Laxton, J. Mongardini, 2016, "Mitigating the Deadly Embrace in Financial Cycles:
Countercyclical Buffers and Loan-toValue Limits," IMF Working Paper No 16/87.
Alichi, A., O. Bizimana, S. Domit, E. Fernandez Corugedo, D. Laxton, K. Tanyeri, H.
Wang, F. Zhang, 2015, "Multivariate Filter Estimation of Potential Output for the Euro Area and the United
States" IMF Working Paper No. 15/253. Alichi, A., K. Clinton, C. Freedman, M. Juillard, O. Kamenik, D. Laxton, J.
Turunen, H. Wang, 2015, "Avoiding Dark Corners: A Robust Monetary Policy Framework for the United States" IMF
Working Paper No. 15/134. Alichi, A., K. Clinton, C. Freedman, M. Juillard, O. Kamenik, D. Laxton, J.
Turunen, H. Wang, 2015, "Avoiding Dark Corners: A Robust Monetary Policy Framework for the United States"
Blog.
Benes, J., M. Chauvet, O. Kamenik, M. Kumhof, D. Laxton, S. Mursula, and J. Selody, 2015, "The Future of Oil:
Geology versus Technology," International Journal of Forecasting, Volume 31, Issue 1, Pages 207-221. Blagrave, P., R. Garcia-Saltos, D. Laxton, F. Zhang, 2015, "A Simple Multivariate Filter
for Estimating Potential Output" IMF Working Paper No. 15/79.
Alichi, A., J. Benes, J. Felman, I. Feng, C. Freedman, D. Laxton, E. Tanner, D. Vavra, H. Wang , 2015, "Frontiers of Monetary Policymaking: Adding the Exchange Rate as a Tool to Combat
Deflationary Risks in the Czech Republic" IMF Working Paper No. 15/74.
Andrle, M., P. Blagrave, P. Espaillat, K. Honjo, B. Hunt, M. Kortelainen, R. Lalonde, D. Laxton, E. Mavroeidi, D. Muir,
S. Mursula, S. Snudden , 2015, "The Flexible System of Global Models - FSGM" IMF Working Paper No.
15/64.
Papers in 2014
Laxton, D., J. Benes, M. Kumhof, D. Muir, S.
Mursula, 2013, "The Benefits of International Policy Coordination Revisited," IMF
Working Paper No. 13/262.
Kortelainen M., D. Laxton and J. Selody 2014, "Fiscal
Adjustment, Growth and Imbalances," in C. Cottarelli, P. Gerson and A. Senhadji (eds.), Post-Crises Fiscal Policy,
MIT Press, pp. 535–549.
Kortelainen M., D. Laxton and J. Selody
2014, "Coordination of Fiscal and Monetary Policies," in C. Cottarell, P. Gerson and A. Senhadji (eds.), Post-Crises
Fiscal Policy, MIT Press, pp. 373–391.
Alichi, Ali, J. Felman, E. Fernandez-Corugedo, D. Laxton, and J.M. Natal, 2014, "Anchoring Inflation Expectations When
Inflation Is Undershooting," in Box 1.3 of Chapter 1, World Economic Outlook, April 2014, International Monetary
Fund
Papers in 2013
Carabenciov, I., C. Freedman, R. Garcia-Saltos,
O. Kamenik, D. Laxton and P. Manchev. 2013, "GPM6: The Global Projection Model with 6 Regions," IMF Working Paper
No. 13/87.
Anderson, D., B. Hunt, M. Kortelainen, M.
Kumhof, D. Laxton, D. Muir, S. Mursula, and S. Snudden. 2013, "Getting to Know GIMF – The Simulation Properties
of the Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal Model," IMF Working Paper No. 13/55.
Papers in 2012
Papers in 2011
Kumhof, M., D. Laxton, and K. Naknoi, 2011, "Does the Exchange Rate Belong in Monetary Policy
Rules?, New Answers from a DSGE Model With Endogenous Tradability and Trade Frictions" in Macroeconomic Performance
in a Globalising Economy, ed. by R. Anderton and G. Kenny (Cambridge University Press), pp. 120-154.
Papers in 2010
Alichi, A., K. Clinton, J. Dagher, O. Kamenik, D. Laxton, and M. Mills, 2010, "A Model for Full-Fledged Inflation Targeting
and Application to Ghana", IMF Working Paper 10/25 (January 2010).
Benes, J., K. Clinton, R. Garcia-Saltos, M. Johnson, D. Laxton, P. Manchev and T. Matheson, 2010 "Estimating Potential Output
with a Multivariate Filter." IMF Working Paper 10/285.
Benes, J., K. Clinton, M. Johnson, D. Laxton and T. Matheson, "Structural Models in Real Time," IMF Working Paper 10/56 (March
2010).
Clinton, K., M. Johnson, O. Kamenik and D. Laxton, 2010, "International Deflation Risks Under Alternative Macroeconomic Policies,"
Journal of Japanese and International Economies.
Clinton, K., M. Kumhof, D. Laxton and S. Mursula, 2010, "Budget Consolidation: Short-Term Pain for Long-Term Gain", IMF Working
Paper 10/163 (July 2010).
Coenen,G., C. Erceg, C. Freedman, D. Furceri, M. Kumhof, R. Lalonde, J. Linde, A. Mourougane, D. Muir, S. Mursula, J. Roberts,
W. Roeger, C. de Resende, S. Smudden, M. Trabandt, in 't Veld, J. "Effects of Fiscal Stimulus in Structural Models, IMF Working
Paper 10/73 (March 2010).
Freedman,C., M. Kumhof, D. Laxton, D.Muir, and S. Mursula, 2010, "Global Effects of Fiscal Stimulus During the Crisis," Journal
of Monetary Economics, Bol. 57 (June), pp. 506-526, available at http://www.sciencedirect.com/science
Kozack, J., D. Laxton, and K. Srinivasan, 2010, "The Macroeconomic Impact of Sovereign Wealth
Funds," Economics of Sovereign Wealth Funds, Chapter 14, pp. 187-204, (Washington, DC: International Monetary
Fund).
Kumhof, M., D. Laxton, D. Muir and S. Mursula, 2010, "The Global Integrated Monetary Fiscal Model (GIMF)---Theoretical Structure",
IMF Working Paper 10/34 (February 2010)
Kumhof, M., D. Laxton, D. Leigh, 2010, "To Starve or Not to Starve the Beast', IMF Working Paper 10/199 (September 2010).
Papers in 2009
Andrle, M., C. Freedman, R. Garcia-Saltos, K. Hermawan, D. Laxton, and H. Munandar, 2009, "Adding Indonesia to the Global
Projection Model," IMF Working Paper 09/255 (November 2009).
Alichi, A., H. Chen, K. Clinton, C. Freedman, M.J. Johnson, O. Kamenik, Turgut Kisinbay, and D. Laxton, 2009, Inflation Targeting
Under Imperfect Policy Credibility, IMF Working Paper 09/94 (April 2009).
Download Code for "Inflation Targeting Under Imperfect Policy Credibility" paper (requires Dynare++ 1.3.7 and Sirius)
Canales-Kriljenko, J., C. Freedman, R. Garcia-Saltos, M. Johnson, and D. Laxton, Adding Latin America to the Global Projection
Model, IMF Working Paper 09/85 (April 2009).
Chen,H., K. Clinton, M. Johnson, O. Kamenik, and D. Laxton, 2009, "Constructing Forecast Confidence Bands During the Financial
Crisis," IMF Working Paper 09/214 (September 2009).
Decressin, J. and D. Laxton, 2009, "Gauging Risks For Deflation," IMF Staff Position Paper No. 09/01 (Washington DC.: International
Monetary Fund.
Freedman, C., and D. Laxton, 2009, Why Inflation Targeting?, IMF Working Paper No. 09/86 (Washington, DC.: International Monetary
Fund) and Chapter 2 of On Implementing Full-Fledged Inflation-Targeting Regimes: Saying What You Do and Doing What you Say,
unpublished manuscript by C. Freedman, D. Laxton and I. Okter-Robe.
Freedman, C., and D. Laxton, 2009, IT Framework Design Parameters, IMF Working Paper No. 09/87 (Washington, DC.: International
Monetary Fund) and Chapter 3 of On Implementing Full-Fledged Inflation-Targeting Regimes: Saying What You Do and Doing What
you Say, unpublished manuscript by C. Freedman, D. Laxton and I. Okter-Robe.
Freedman, C. and D. Laxton, 2009, "Inflation Targeting Pillars: Transparency and Accountability," IMF Working Paper No. 09/262
(Washington DC.: International Monetary Fund) and Chapter 4 of On Implementing Full-Fledged Inflation-Targeting Regimes: Saying
What You Do and Doing What You Say, unpublished manuscript by C. Freedman, D. Laxton and I. Okter-Robe.
Freedman, C., M. Kumhof, D. Laxton, and J. Lee, 2009, The Case for Global Fiscal Stimulus, IMF Staff Position Paper No. 09/04
(Washington, DC.: International Monetary Fund).
Freedman C., M. Kumhof, D. Laxton, D. Muir and S. Mursula, 2009, "Fiscal Stimulus to the Rescue? Short-Run Benefits and Potential
Long-Term Costs of Fiscal Deficits," IMF Working Paper No. 09/255 (Washington DC.: International Monetary Fund).
Kumhof, M. and D. Laxton, 2009, "Fiscal Deficits and Current Account Deficits, "
Kumhof, M. and D. Laxton, 2009, Chiles Structural Fiscal Surplus Rule: A Model-Based Evaluation, IMF Working Paper 09/88 (April
2009).
Kumhof, M., K. Naknoi and D. Laxton, 2009, "Does
the Exchange Rate Belong in Monetary Policy Rules? New Answers from a DSGE Model with Endogenous Tradability and Trade
Frictions," ECB Conference Volume, forthcoming, 2009. Papers in 2008
Carabenciov, I., I. Ermolaev, C. Freedman, M. Juillard, O. Kamenik, D. Korsunmov, and D. Laxton, 2008, A Small Quarterly Projection
Model of the U.S. Economy, IMF Working Paper No. 08/278 (Washington, DC.: International Monetary Fund).
Carabenciov, I., I. Ermolaev, C. Freedman, M. Juillard, O. Kamenik, D. Korsunmov, D. Laxton, and J. Laxton, 2008a, A Small
Multi-Country Global Projection Model, IMF Working Paper No. 08/279 (Washington, DC.: International Monetary Fund).
Carabenciov, I., I. Ermolaev, C. Freedman, M. Juillard, O. Kamenik, D. Korsunmov, D. Laxton, and J. Laxton, 2008b, A Small
Multi-Country Global Projection Model with Financial-Real Linkages and Oil Prices, IMF Working Paper No. 08/280 (Washington,
DC.: International Monetary Fund).
Catão, L., D. Laxton, and A. Pagan, 2008, Monetary Transmission in an Emerging Targeter: The Case of Brazil, IMF Working Paper
no. 08/191 (Washington, D.C.: International Monetary Fund).
Collyns, C., D. Laxton, and N. Tamirisa, 2008, Measuring Output Gaps Box 1.1 of Chapter 1 of the October 2008 World Economic
Outlook, International Monetary Fund.
Danninger, S, M. Kumhof, and D. Laxton, 2008, When Does Fiscal Stimulus Work? Box 2.1 of Chapter 2 of the April 2008 World
Economic Outlook, International Monetary Fund.
Elekdag, Selim, René Lalonde, Douglas Laxton, Dirk Muir, and Paolo Pesenti, 2008, Oil Price Movements and the Global Economy:
A Model-Based Assessment, IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 55, No. 2, pp. 297-311 and NBER Working Paper No. 13792.
Faruqee, H., D. Laxton, D. Muir and P. Pesenti, 2008, Would Protectionism Defuse Global Imbalances and Spur Economic Activity?
A Scenario Analysis, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control,8 (August), pp . 2651-2689 and NBER Working Paper No. 12704.
Helbling, T., D. Laxton, V. Mercer-Blackman and I. Tytell, 2008, Is Inflation Back? Commodity Prices and Inflation Chapter
3 of the October 2008 World Economic Outlook, International Monetary Fund.
Iakova, D., D. Laxton, and D, Muir, “The effects of
cutting taxes on gasoline,” Box 6 of Chapter 2 of the October 2008 European Regional Economic Outlook, International
Monetary Fund, available at www.imf.org Juillard, M., O. Kamenik, D. Laxton, and M. Kumhof, 2008, Optimal Price Setting and Inflation Inertia in a Rational Expectations
Model, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 8 (August), pp . 2584-2621.
Kamenik, O., H. Kiem, V. Klyuev, and D, Laxton, 2008, Why is Canadas Price Level so Predictable? IMF Working Paper 08/25 (January
2008).
Karam, P., D. Laxton, D. Rose, and N. Tamirisa, 2008, “The Macroeconomic
Costs and Benefits of Adopting the Euro,” IMF Staff Papers,
Vol. 55, No. 2, pp. 339–55. Kumhof, M., D. Laxton, and D. Muir, 2008, Monetary Policy Regimes and Commodity Prices Box 3.3 of Chapter 3 of the October
2008 World Economic Outlook, International Monetary Fund.
Kumhof, M. and D. Laxton, 2008, South Asia: Illustrative Impact of an Abrupt Climate Shock Box 4.2 of Chapter 4 of the April
2008 World Economic Outlook, International Monetary Fund.
Kumhof, M.. D. Laxton. and K. Naknoi, 2008, "Does
the Exchange Rate Belong in Monetary Policy Rules? New Answers from a DSGE Model with Endogenous Tradability and Trade Frictions,"
paper prepared for an ECB Conference on Globalisation and the Marcoeconomy, July 23–34, 2007 in Frankfurt, Germany.
Laxton, D., 2008, “Getting to Know the Global Economy Model and Its
Philosophy,” IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 55, No. 2, pp. 213–42. Laxton, D., D. Rose and A. Scott, 2008, “Developing a Structured Forecasting and Policy
Analysis System,” Chapter prepared for a book on implementation issues for Inflation Targeting. Draft available from
authors.
Scott, A., A. Barnett, M. De Broeck, A. Ivanova, K. Daehaeng, M. Kumhof, D. Laxton, D. Leigh, S. Stehn and S. Symansky, 2008,
Fiscal Policy as a Countercyclical Tool Chapter 5 of the October 2008 World Economic Outlook, International Monetary Fund.
Papers in 2007
Argov, E., N. Epstein, P. Karam, D. Laxton, and D. Rose, 2007, Endogenous Monetary Policy Credibility in a Small Structural
Model of Israel, IMF Working Paper 07/207 (August 2007).
Botman, Dennis, Philippe Karam, Doug Laxton and David Rose, 2007, DSGE Modeling at the Fund: Applications and Further Developments.
IMF Working Paper 07/200 (August 2007).
Elekdag, Selim, René Lalonde, Douglas Laxton, Dirk Muir, and Paolo Pesenti, 2007, “Oil
Price Movements and the Global Economy: A Model-Based Assessment,” paper prepared for an IMF Workshop on Open Economy
Models for Policy Evaluation, April 18-21, 2007 (Washington, D.C.: Washington Plaza Hotel), Bank of Canada Working Paper,
2007-34, forthcoming in IMF Staff Papers.
Elekdag, S. and D. Laxton, 2007, Understanding the Link Between Oil Prices and the World Economy, Box 1.2 in Chapter 1 of
the April 2007 World Economic Outlook, International Monetary Fund.
Gray, Gavin, Thomas Harjes, Andy Jobst, Douglas Laxton, Natalia Tamirisa, and Emil Stavrev, 2007, The Euro and New Member
States, in IMF Staff Country Report, No. 07/259, (Washington: International Monetary Fund) pp. 545.
Helbling, T., P. Berezin, A. Kose, M. Kumhof., D. Laxton, and N. Spatafora, 2007, Decoupling the Train? Spillovers and Cycles
in the Global Economy? Chapter 4 of the April 2007 World Economic Outlook, International Monetary Fund.
Juillard, M., O. Kamenik, M. Kumhof, and D. Laxton, 2007, Measures of Potential Output from an Estimated DSGE Model of the
United States paper presented at a workshop on Issues in Measuring Potential Output, Ankara Turkey, January 16, 2007.
Kumhof, M. and D. Laxton, 2007, "A Party Without a Hangover? On the Effects of U.S. Fiscal Deficits" IMF Working Paper 07/202
(August 2007).
Kumhof, M. and D. Laxton, 2007, Improved Macroeconomic PerformanceGood Luck or Good Policies Box 5.2 of Chapter 5 of the October
2007 World Economic Outlook, International Monetary Fund.
Papers in 2006
Berg, A., P. Karam, and D. Laxton, 2006, A Practical Model-Based Approach to Monetary Policy AnalysisOverview, IMF Working
Paper 06/080 (April 2006).
Berg, A., P. Karam, and D. Laxton, 2006, Practical Model-Based Monetary Policy AnalysisA How-to Guide, IMF Working Paper 06/081
(April 2006).
Botman, D., D. Muir, D. Laxton, and A. Romanov, 2006, A New-Open-Economy-Macro Model for Fiscal Policy Evaluation, IMF Working
Paper 06/045 (February 2006).
Epstein, N., D. Laxton, P. Karam, and D. Rose, 2006, A Simple Forecasting and Policy Analysis System for Israel: Structure
and Applications in Israel: Selected Issues, IMF Country Report, No. 06/121 (March 2006).
Juillard, M., P. Karam, D. Laxton, and P. Pesenti, 2006, A Simple Welfare-Based Monetary Policy Rule in an Estimated DSGE
Model of the US Economy, ECB Working Paper No. 613.
Kumhof, M. and D. Laxton, 2006, How Will Global Imbalances Adjust? Box 1.3 of Chapter 1 of the September 2006 World Economic
Outlook, International Monetary Fund.
Kumhof, M., D. Laxton and W. Schule, 2006, "Optimized Fiscal Rules for a Monetary Union"
prepared for a conference at the European Commission on Fiscal Policy Issues. Draft available from authors.
Laxton, D., P. NDiaye, and P. Pesenti, 2006, Shocks, Monetary Rules: A Scenario Analysis for Japan, Journal of Japanese and
International Economies, doi: 10.1016/j.jjie.2006.08.004.
http://www.cnb.cz/en/research/research_publications/cnb_wp/2006/cnbwp_2006_11.html
Papers in 2005
Batini, N., K. Kuttner, and D. Laxton, 2005, Does Inflation Targeting Work in Emerging Markets? Chapter 4 of the September
2005 World Economic Outlook, International Monetary Fund.
Faruqee, H., D. Laxton, D. Muir, and P. Pesenti, 2005, Smooth Landing or Crash? Model-Based Scenarios of Global Current Account
Rebalancing, NBER Working Paper No. 11583.
Goretti, M., and D. Laxton, 2005, Long-Term Inflation Expectations and Credibility, Box 4.2 in Chapter 4 of the September
2005 World Economic Outlook, International Monetary Fund.
Laxton, D. and Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2005, How Will Global Imbalances Adjust? Appendix 1.2 of Chapter 1 of the September
2005 World Economic Outlook, International Monetary Fund.
Karam. P., D. Laxton and N. Tamirisa, 2005, Monetary Policy Implications of Capital Account Volatility Under an Inflation
Targeting Regime, in Czech Republic: Selected Issues, IMF Country Report, No. 05/275 (August 2005).
Kumhof, M., D. Laxton, and D. Muir, 2005, Consequences of U.S. Fiscal Consolidation for the U.S. Current Account in United
States: Selected Issues, IMF Country Report, No. 05/258 (July 2005).
Papers in 2004
Bayoumi, T., D. Laxton, H. Faruqee, B. Hunt, P. Karam, J. Lee, A. Rebucci and I. Tchakarov, 2004, GEM: A New International
Macroeconomic Model, Occasional Paper, No. 239, (Washington: International Monetary Fund).
Bayoumi, T., M. Kumhof, D. Laxton and K. Naknoi, 2004, "Exchange Rate Regimes, International
Linkages and the Macroeconomic Performance of the New Member States," policy version prepared for a high level conference
at the ECB in October and an extended more analytical version was prepared for the IMF Annual Research Conference, November
2004.
Bayoumi, T., D. Laxton and P. Pesenti, 2004, Benefits and Spillovers of Greater Competition in Europe: A Macroeconomic Assessment,
ECB Working Paper No. 341 and NBER Working Paper No. 10416.
Papers in 2003
Coats, W., D. Laxton and D. Rose, 2003, The Czech National Banks Forecasting and Policy Analysis System,
(Prague, Czech Republic: Czech National Bank).
Laxton, D., and P. Pesenti, 2003, Monetary Policy Rules for Small, Open, Emerging Economies, Journal of Monetary Economics,
Vol. 50 (July), pp. 1109-1146.
Hunt, B. and D. Laxton, 2003, The Zero-Interest-Rate Floor and Its Implications for Monetary Policy
in Japan, in Japans Lost Decade: Policies for Economic Revival,
Hunt, B. and D. Laxton, 2003, “The Zero-Interest-Rate Floor and Its Implications for Monetary
Policy in Japan,” in Japan’s Lost Decade: Policies for Economic Revival, ed. by Tim Callen and Jonathan Ostry
(Washington, D.C.: International Monetary Fund).
Hunt, B. and D. Laxton, 2003b, Some Simulation Properties of the Major Euro Area Economies in MULTIMOD, IMF Working Paper
03/31 (February 2003).
Hunt, B., P. Isard and D. Laxton, 2003, “Inflation Targeting and the Role of the Exchange
Rate”, unpublished draft available from authors.
Papers in 2002
Hunt, Benjamin, Peter Isard, and Douglas Laxton, 2002, The Macroeconomic Effects of Higher Oil Prices, National Institute
Economic Review, Vol. 179, No. 1, pp. 87-103.
Boone, Laurence, Michel Juillard, Douglas Laxton and Papa N’Diaye, 2002, “How Well
Do Alternative Time-Varying Models of the NAIRU Help Policymakers Forecast Unemployment?,” unpublished draft available
from authors.
Bleaney Michael and Douglas Laxton, 2002, “Real Interest Rates and Real Exchange Rates:
Evidence from Indexed Bonds,” Manchester School (U.K.); 71, No. 1:65-77, January.
Laxton, Douglas and Papa NDiaye, 2002, Monetary Policy Credibility and the Unemployment-Inflation Nexus: Some Evidence from
Seventeen OECD Countries, IMF Working Paper 02/220 (Washington: International Monetary Fund).
Papers in 2001
Laxton, Douglas and Eswar Prasad, 2001, Possible Effects of European Monetary Union on Switzerland A Case Study of Policy
Dilemmas Caused by Low Inflation and the Nominal Interest Rate Floor, Journal of Policy Modeling, Vol. 23, Issue 5 (July)
pp. 531-51.
Hunt, Benjamin, Peter Isard, and Douglas Laxton, 2001, The Zero Interest Rate Floor (ZIF) and Its Implications for Monetary
Policy in Japan, IMF Working Paper No. 01/186 (Washington: International Monetary Fund).
Hunt, Benjamin, Peter Isard, and Douglas Laxton, 2001, The Macroeconomic Effects of Higher Oil Prices, IMF Working Paper No.
01/14 (Washington: International Monetary Fund).
Clark, Peter, Douglas Laxton, and David Rose, 2001, An Evaluation of Alternative Monetary Policy Rules in a Model with Capacity
Constraints, Journal of Money Credit and Banking, Vol. 33, No. 1 (February), pp. 42-64.
Isard, Peter, Douglas Laxton and Ann-Charlotte Eliasson, 2001, Inflation Targeting with NAIRU Uncertainty and Endogenous Policy
Credibility, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Vol. 25, pp. 115-48.
Papers in 2000
Isard, Peter and Douglas Laxton, 2000b, Inflation-Forecast Targeting and the Role of Macroeconomic
Models, in Inflation Targeting in Transition Economies: The Case of the Czech Republic, ed. by Warren Coates (Prague: Czech
National Bank), pp. 105-137.
Faruqee, Hamid and Douglas Laxton, 2000, Life-Cycles, Dynasties, Saving: Implications for Closed and Small, Open Economies,
IMF Working Paper 00/126, July, (Washington: International Monetary Fund).
Laxton, Douglas and Alasdair Scott, 2000, On Developing a Structured Forecasting and Policy Analysis
System Designed to Support Inflation-Forecast-Targeting, in Inflation Targeting Experiences: England, Finland, Poland, Mexico,
Brazil, Chile, (Ankara: The Central Bank of Turkey),pp. 6-63.
Isard, Peter and Douglas Laxton, 2000, Issues Relating to Inflation Targeting and the Bank of Englands Framework, in IMF Staff
Country Report, No. 00/106, (Washington: International Monetary Fund) pp. 5-45.
Papers in 1999
Isard Peter, and Douglas Laxton, 1999, “Monetary Policy with NAIRU Uncertainty and Endogenous
Credibility: Perspectives on Policy Rules and the Gains from Experimentation and Transparency,” in Monetary Policy Uncertainty
edited by Benjamin Hunt and Andrew Orr (Reserve Bank of New Zealand: Wellington).
Eliasson, Ann-Charlotte, Peter Isard, and Douglas Laxton, 1999, “Simple Monetary Policy
Rules Under Model Uncertainty,” in International Finance and Financial Crises: Essays in Honor of Robert P. Flood, Jr.,
ed. by Peter Isard, Assaf Razin, and Andrew K. Rose (Washington: International Monetary Fund).
Isard, Peter, D. Laxton, and A. Eliasson, 1999, Simple Monetary Policy Rules Under Model Uncertainty, International Tax and
Public Finance, Vol. 6, pp. 537-577.
Ford, Robert, and Douglas Laxton, 1999, World Public Debt and Real Interest Rates, Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Vol.
15, No. 2, pp. 77-94.
Papers in 1998
Juillard, Michel, Douglas Laxton, Hope Pioro and Peter McAdam, 1998, An Algorithm Competition: First-Order Techniques Versus
Newton-Based Techniques, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Vol. 22, Issue 8-9, pp. 1291-1318.
Laxton, Douglas, 1998, MULTIMOD Mark III: The Equations and Documentation."
Laxton, Douglas, Hamid Faruqee, Hamid, Peter Isard, Eswar Prasad, and Bart Turtelboom, 1998, MULTIMOD Mark III: The Core Dynamic
and Steady-State Models, IMF Occasional Paper, No. 164, May, (Washington: International Monetary Fund).
Bayoumi, Tamim, Douglas Laxton, and David T. Coe, 1998, Liberating Supply: Fiscal Policy and Technological Innovation in a
Multicountry Model, IMF Working Paper 98/95, June, (Washington: International Monetary Fund).
Armstrong, John, Richard Black, Douglas Laxton, and David Rose, 1998, A Robust Method for Simulating Forward-Looking Models,
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Vol. 22, Issue 4, pp. 489-501.
Papers in 1997
Debelle, Guy, and Douglas Laxton, 1997, “Is the Phillips Curve Really a Curve? Some Evidence
for Canada, The United Kingdom and the United States,” Staff Papers, International Monetary Fund, Vol. 44, No. 2, June,
pp. 249–82.
Papers in 1996
Faruqee, Hamid, Douglas Laxton, and Steven Symansky, 1996, Government Debt, Lifecycle Income and Liquidity
Constraints: Beyond Approximate Ricardian Equivalence, IMF Working Paper 96/140, December, (Washington: International Monetary
Fund).
Isard, Peter, and Douglas Laxton, 1996, “Strategic Choice in Phillips Curve Specification:
What if Bob Gordon is Wrong?,” prepared for a conference on the Macroeconomic Aspects of European Unemployment sponsored
by the European University Institute in Florence, Italy, November.
Laxton, Douglas, Hope Pioro, and Peter McAdam, 1996, “Solving MULTIMOD with First-Order
and Newton-Based Techniques,” released as a University of Strathclyde Discussion Paper in Economic Modeling, October.
Juillard, Michel, and Douglas Laxton, 1996, “A Robust and Efficient Method for Solving Nonlinear
Rational Expectations Models,” IMF Working Paper 96/106, September, (Washington: International Monetary Fund).
Clark, Peter, and Douglas Laxton, 1996, “Phillips Curves, Phillips Lines and the Unemployment
Costs of Overheating,” prepared for a conference on Computational Economics in Geneva, Switzerland, May.
Clark, Peter, Douglas Laxton, and David Rose, 1996, “Asymmetry in the U.S. Output-Inflation
Nexus: Issues and Evidence,” IMF Staff Studies, Vol. 46, March, (Washington: International Monetary Fund).
Papers in 1995
Buckberg, E., Douglas Laxton, and others, 1995, “United States Background Papers,”
IMF Staff Country Report No. 95/94, September, (Washington: International Monetary Fund).
Laxton, Douglas, Guy Meredith, and David Rose, 1995, “Asymmetric Effects of Economic Activity
on Inflation: Evidence and Policy Implications,” IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 42, June, (Washington: International Monetary
Fund).
Clark, Peter, Douglas Laxton, and David Rose, 1995, “Capacity Constraints, Inflation and
the Transmission Mechanism: Forward-Looking Versus Myopic Policy Rules,” IMF Working Paper 95/75, July, (Washington:
International Monetary Fund).
Black, Richard, Douglas Laxton, David Rose, and Robert Tetlow, 1995, The Bank of Canada's New Quarterly Projection Model:
The Steady-State Model, Technical Report No. 72, (Ottawa: Bank of Canada), January.
Papers in 1994
Bayoumi, Tamim, and Douglas Laxton, 1994, Government Debt, Deficits, and the Business Cycle, Deficit
Reduction: What Gain, What Pain?, (C.D. Howe Institute).
Papers in 1993
Laxton, Douglas, David Rose, and Robert Tetlow, 1993, Problems in Identifying Nonlinear Phillips Curves:
Some Further Consequences of Mismeasuring Potential Output, Working Paper 93/6, (Ottawa: Bank of Canada), June.
Laxton, Douglas, David Rose, Robert Tetlow, 1993, Is the Canadian Phillips Curve Non-Linear?, Working
Paper No. 93/7, (Ottawa: Bank of Canada), July.
Laxton,Douglas, David Rose, Robert Tetlow, 1993, Monetary Policy, Uncertainty and the Presumption of Linearity, Technical
Report No. 63, (Ottawa: Bank of Canada), August. http://www.bankofcanada.ca/en/res/tr/1993/tr63-e.html
Laxton, Douglas, Nick Ricketts, and David Rose, 1993, Uncertainty, Learning and Policy Credibility,
Economic Behavior and Policy Choice Under Price Stability, Proceedings of a Conference held at the Bank of Canada, 30-31 October.
Papers in 1992
Laxton, Douglas, Kevin Shoom, and Robert Tetlow, 1992, Should the Change in the Gap Appear in the Phillips
Curve?: Some Consequences of Mismeasuring Potential Output, Working Paper 92/1, (Ottawa: Bank of Canada), January.
Laxton, Douglas, and Robert Tetlow, 1992, “Government Debt in an Open Economy,” Technical
Report No. 58, (Ottawa: Bank of Canada), January.
Workshops and Courses
[1] Inflation Targeting Workshop for central bankers in Latin America in Mexico, 2001 (with
Alain Ize, MFD, IMF) [2] Bank of Finland Modeling Workshop for Central Bank Modelers, 2001 (with Chris-Marie Rasi,
Bank of Finland) [3] Inflation Targeting Workshop for central bankers in Eastern
Europe in Turkey, 2002 (with Warren Coats, MFD, IMF) [4] Bank of Finland Modeling
Workshop for Central Bank Modelers, 2002 (with Chris-Marie Rasi, Bank of Finland) [5]
Bank of Finland Modeling Workshop for Central Bank Modelers, 2003 (with Chris-Marie Rasi, Bank of Finland) [6] Inflation Targeting Workshop for central bankers in Eastern Europe in Ukraine, 2004 (with Inci Otker
Robe, MFD, IMF) [7] IMF DSGE Modeling Conference, Washington, DC July 2004 [8] Inflation Targeting: Policy and Implementation Issues Workshop for central bankers in eastern europe
Istanbul, Turkey, September 12-19, 2005 (with Inci Otker Robe, MFD, IMF) [9]
Inflation Targeting in Theory and Practice: Saying What You Do and Doing What You Say, IMF Institute Course, November 21–23,
2005 (with Tiff Macklem, Deputy Governor, Bank of Canada) [10] The Interface
between Monetary Policy and Macro Modeling, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, March 13-15, 2006 (with Aaron Drew, David Hargreaves,
and Sharon McCaw). [11] Inflation Targeting in Theory and Practice: Saying What
You Do and Doing What You Say, IMF Institute Course, October3-5, 2006 (with Tiff Macklem, Deputy Governor, Bank of Canada) [12] IMF Global Economy Modeling Course, Washington, DC October, 2006 [13] Inflation Targeting: Policy and Implementation Issues Workshop for central bankers in Asia, Chiang Mai,
Thailand, November 6-13, 2006 (with Karl Habermeier, MFD, IMF) [14] Uses of DSGE
Models at the Fund, Washington, DC April, 2007 [15] Workshop and Training on
the Global Integrated Monetary Fiscal Model (GIMF) and Small Empirically-Based Global Projection Models (GPMs), Washington,
DC March, 2008 [16] Inflation Targeting in Theory and Practice: Saying What You
Do and Doing What You Say, IMF Institute Course, February 4–6, 2008 (with Oistein and Kristen Solberg-Johansen, Norges
Bank) [17] Workshop and Training on the Global Integrated Monetary Fiscal Model (GIMF) and Small Empirically-Based
Global Projection Models (GPMs), Washington, DC, March, 2008.
[18] IMF RES Workshop on Macro-Financial Linkages, Oil Prices
and Deflation, Washington DC, January, 2009 [19] Inflation Targeting in Theory and Practice: Saying What You Do and Doing
What You Say, IMF Institute Course, February 2-4, 2009 (with Amund Holmsen, Norges Bank}. [20] FAD/RES Fiscal Multiplier Comparison Workshop,
IMF, May 13, 2009 (with T. Baunsgaard and M. Kumar) [21] FAD/RES Workshop on Fiscal Policy, IMF, June
2, 2009 (with T. Baunsgaard and M. Kumar)
[22] RES Workshop on Structural Models in Real Time,
IMF, November 2-5, 2009
[23] HKMA Workshop on GPM and GIMF, Hong Kong, March
15-19, 2010.
[24] RES Workshop on Hot Topics in Macro Modeling, Washington
DC, April 1-9, 2010.
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